Current Market Status: As of January 2026, the Federal Reserve has moved into a “Neutral Stance.” Understanding the path that led us here is essential for timing your 2026 purchase or refinance. Explore our definitive record of FOMC decisions and their impact on Kansas City interest rates.
While the Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates directly, their control over the Federal Funds Rate creates the “gravity” that pulls local lending costs up or down. We track these meetings to help Kansas City homeowners identify patterns between national policy and their monthly housing payments.
Current & Historical Fed Meeting Log
This log tracks the correlation between Fed actions and local 30-year fixed mortgage benchmarks.
| FOMC Meeting Date | Fed Action | Fed Funds Rate | KC 30-Yr Fixed (Avg) | Historical Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Upcoming | 3.50% – 3.75% | 6.01% | Markets expect a “Hold” as the Fed reaches a neutral stance. |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Cut -25bps | 3.50% – 3.75% | 6.18% | The Holiday Pivot: Signaled confidence in a 2026 “soft landing.” |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Cut -25bps | 3.75% – 4.00% | 6.32% | The Cautionary Cut: Dissent grew among hawkish members. |
| Sept 17, 2025 | Cut -25bps | 4.00% – 4.25% | 6.45% | The Autumn Pivot: First cut in years shifted focus to the job market. |
| July 30, 2025 | Hold | 4.25% – 4.50% | 6.85% | The Summer Pause: Fed waited for “sticky” inflation to cool. |
| June 18, 2025 | Hold | 4.25% – 4.50% | 6.90% | “Hawkish Pause” suggested relief was coming late-year. |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Hold | 4.25% – 4.50% | 7.05% | Higher for Longer: Market volatility spiked on hawkish forecasts. |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Hold | 4.25% – 4.50% | 6.88% | Fed noted the “last mile” of inflation fight would be difficult. |
2026 Forecast: What to Expect Next
As we move through 2026, the Federal Reserve is nearing its “neutral rate”—the level where interest rates neither stimulate nor restrict growth. For current buyers, this suggests a more stable environment than the volatility of 2024–2025.
- Upcoming Meeting: January 27–28, 2026.
- Key Trend: Mortgage rates are stabilizing in the low-6% range. See our full 2026 Rate Forecast.
- Regional Insight: Homeowners in neighborhoods from Overland Park to Lee’s Summit are seeing an 8.9% increase in local inventory as the “Lock-In Effect” begins to fade.
The “Lag Effect” in Kansas City
It is a common myth that mortgage rates drop the moment the Fed announces a cut. In reality, bond investors typically move 30-year mortgage rates weeks before the meeting based on economic data. The 10-Year Treasury yield remains the primary driver of pricing in the Kansas City metro.
Plan Your Next Move
Don’t let the next Fed meeting catch you off guard. Whether you are buying in the Northland or considering a mortgage refinance in Johnson County, we can help you time the market.
Get a Personalized Rate Quote Today from our local KC experts like Rick Woodruff.