Federal Reserve Rate Intelligence
Federal Reserve Meeting History and Mortgage Rate Trends
Review recent Federal Open Market Committee decisions, federal funds rate changes and the historical relationship between Fed policy and mortgage rates. This archive explains what changed at each meeting—and why a Fed rate cut, hold or increase does not automatically produce the same movement in 30-year mortgage rates.
Official 2026 Schedule
Upcoming Federal Reserve Meetings
Four regularly scheduled FOMC meetings remain in 2026. Dates can change, and unscheduled meetings may occur when necessary.
Understanding the Relationship
Does the Federal Reserve Set Mortgage Rates?
The Federal Reserve does not directly set conventional, FHA, VA, USDA or jumbo mortgage rates. The FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate, which is an overnight rate used in the banking system. That policy rate has a more direct relationship with short-term borrowing costs, including some credit cards, home equity lines of credit and adjustable-rate products.
Fixed mortgage rates are more closely connected to longer-term bond-market expectations. Investors evaluate inflation, employment, economic growth, Treasury yields, mortgage-backed securities and the expected path of future Federal Reserve policy. Because financial markets anticipate policy decisions, mortgage rates can move before an FOMC announcement—and may move in the opposite direction afterward.
Inflation
Persistent inflation can push long-term yields and mortgage pricing higher, even while markets expect eventual Fed easing.
Employment
Labor-market strength or weakness can change expectations for future Fed policy and economic growth.
Treasury Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield is a useful market reference, although mortgage rates do not track it point for point.
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Investor demand, prepayment risk and market volatility influence the pricing available from mortgage lenders.
Policy Decision Archive
Federal Reserve Meeting and Rate Decision History
The tables below summarize recent scheduled FOMC decisions. Mortgage-market observations describe the broader relationship between policy expectations and long-term rates; they are not a record of Metropolitan Mortgage pricing.
| Meeting | Decision | Target Range After Meeting | Why Mortgage Rates Reacted | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16–17, 2026 | Hold | 3.50%–3.75% | The Committee maintained its target range. Fixed mortgage rates continued to respond to inflation expectations, longer-term yields and broader market uncertainty rather than the unchanged policy rate alone. | Statement |
| April 28–29, 2026 | Hold | 3.50%–3.75% | The target range remained unchanged. The vote showed disagreement about how the policy statement should characterize the possibility of future easing. | Statement |
| March 17–18, 2026 | Hold | 3.50%–3.75% | The Committee maintained its range while emphasizing elevated uncertainty and continued attention to both inflation and employment risks. | Statement |
| January 27–28, 2026 | Hold | 3.50%–3.75% | The year began with the policy range unchanged. Two voters preferred a 0.25 percentage-point reduction, illustrating that disagreement can exist even when the final decision is a hold. | Statement |
| Meeting | Decision | Target Range After Meeting | What Changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 9–10, 2025 | Cut 0.25% | 3.50%–3.75% | The third consecutive quarter-point reduction brought the target range to the level maintained through the first half of 2026. |
| October 28–29, 2025 | Cut 0.25% | 3.75%–4.00% | The Committee continued easing while weighing employment risks against inflation that remained above its longer-run objective. |
| September 16–17, 2025 | Cut 0.25% | 4.00%–4.25% | The first reduction of 2025 followed increased concern about downside risks to employment. |
| July 29–30, 2025 | Hold | 4.25%–4.50% | The Committee kept policy unchanged while markets continued evaluating the timing and extent of possible future reductions. |
| June 17–18, 2025 | Hold | 4.25%–4.50% | The target range remained unchanged as policymakers continued assessing inflation, employment and economic uncertainty. |
| May 6–7, 2025 | Hold | 4.25%–4.50% | No policy-rate change. Longer-term mortgage pricing remained dependent on incoming economic data and bond-market expectations. |
| March 18–19, 2025 | Hold | 4.25%–4.50% | The Committee maintained the range while publishing updated economic projections. |
| January 28–29, 2025 | Hold | 4.25%–4.50% | The first scheduled meeting of 2025 left the policy range unchanged. |
Policy decisions and meeting dates are based on official Federal Reserve statements and calendars. National mortgage benchmarks are available from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey and should not be interpreted as an individual loan quote.
The Market Often Moves First
Why Mortgage Rates Can Rise After a Fed Cut
Market expectations
Bond investors continuously price expectations into Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. When a cut is widely anticipated, mortgage rates may have already adjusted before the announcement.
The Fed outlook
Markets react to the policy statement, economic projections and press conference. A cut paired with concern about inflation can still cause longer-term yields to rise.
Long-term rates
The federal funds rate is an overnight rate. A 30-year fixed mortgage reflects expected economic and inflation conditions over a much longer period.
A useful way to interpret an FOMC announcement
Instead of asking only whether the Fed cut or held rates, compare the decision with what financial markets expected. Then review the Fed's comments about inflation, employment, growth and future policy. The difference between the announcement and prior expectations often matters more to mortgage rates than the headline action itself.
Long-Term Perspective
A Brief History of Federal Reserve Policy and Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates and the federal funds rate have moved through very different economic cycles. These milestones show why a single Fed decision should be viewed within a broader inflation, employment and capital-market environment.
Inflation-fighting peak
The effective federal funds rate averaged above 19% during portions of 1981, while 30-year mortgage rates reached historic highs above 18%.
Gradual normalization
Inflation moderated and both policy rates and mortgage rates generally moved lower, although economic expansions and recessions still produced meaningful cycles.
Financial-crisis response
The Fed rapidly reduced short-term rates and introduced large-scale asset purchases as the financial system and housing market came under severe stress.
Emergency easing
The target range returned near zero and the Fed expanded securities purchases in response to the pandemic-related economic disruption.
Rapid tightening cycle
The Fed raised its target range quickly as inflation accelerated. Mortgage rates also rose sharply as Treasury and mortgage-backed-security markets repriced.
Easing followed by a pause
Three quarter-point reductions in late 2025 lowered the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, where it remained through the June 2026 meeting.
Historical figures are national benchmarks from Federal Reserve and Freddie Mac data. They are included for context and are not individual mortgage offers.
For Homebuyers and Homeowners
How Homebuyers Should Use Fed Meeting Information
An upcoming FOMC meeting can create short-term volatility, but waiting for a specific Fed decision does not guarantee a better mortgage rate. A borrower deciding whether to lock or float should consider the closing deadline, payment tolerance, available points or lender credits and the financial impact of a rate increase.
- Compare rate, APR, points, lender credits and total cash to close—not the note rate alone.
- Ask how long the rate lock lasts and what happens if the closing date changes.
- Review more than one pricing structure, including a lower-cost option and a lower-rate option.
- Base a lock decision on your transaction and budget rather than a single economic headline.
Frequently Asked Questions
Federal Reserve Meetings and Mortgage Rates
Does the Federal Reserve control mortgage rates?
No. The FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate, an overnight bank-funding rate. Fixed mortgage rates are determined in capital markets and reflect inflation, economic growth, Treasury yields, mortgage-backed securities, investor demand and expectations for future Fed policy.
Do mortgage rates fall when the Fed cuts rates?
Not necessarily. Mortgage rates may fall before a widely expected cut, remain stable after the announcement or rise if the Fed's outlook increases concern about inflation or longer-term borrowing costs.
Why do mortgage rates sometimes change before a Fed meeting?
Financial markets continuously evaluate economic reports and Fed communications. Investors may adjust expectations weeks before a meeting, causing Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities to move before the official decision.
How many times does the Federal Reserve meet each year?
The FOMC normally holds eight regularly scheduled meetings each year and may hold additional meetings when needed. Meeting dates, statements and minutes are published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
What should homebuyers watch during a Fed meeting?
Watch the policy decision, changes in the statement, updated economic projections when released and the chair's press conference. Mortgage markets often react to the Fed's outlook and tone rather than the rate decision alone.
Should I wait until after the next Fed meeting to lock my mortgage rate?
Waiting creates the possibility of either a lower or higher rate. Consider your closing timeline, budget and ability to absorb a payment increase. Ask your loan advisor to compare available lock periods, points and lender-credit structures before deciding.
Does the Federal Reserve meet every month?
No. The FOMC normally schedules eight meetings each year, which is approximately one meeting every six weeks. It may also hold unscheduled meetings or conduct other policy actions when conditions require them.
What time are Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions announced?
Scheduled FOMC policy statements are generally released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the second day of the meeting. When a press conference is scheduled, it normally begins at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Where can I find the official FOMC statements and minutes?
The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting calendar, policy statements, implementation notes, economic projections and minutes on the Board of Governors website. Minutes are generally released three weeks after a scheduled policy decision.
Primary Sources
Data and Editorial Standards
This page summarizes publicly available policy decisions for educational purposes. Federal Reserve meeting dates and policy actions are checked against official FOMC materials. National mortgage-rate context is referenced to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates shown by national surveys are averages and are not offers to lend.
Continue Your Research
Related Mortgage Rate Resources
Reviewed by a Kansas City Mortgage Professional
Rick Woodruff, NMLS #248984
Rick Woodruff is a Senior Mortgage Advisor with Metropolitan Mortgage Corporation. He reviews mortgage-rate education for accuracy and practical relevance to homebuyers and homeowners in Kansas and Missouri.
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This content is for educational purposes and is not financial advice or a commitment to lend. Mortgage rates, terms and eligibility vary by borrower and property. Federal Reserve policy information may change after publication. Metropolitan Mortgage Corporation, NMLS #227722.